As the 2024/25 season draws to a close, it also marks the two-thirds stage of the Ballon d’Or calendar, meaning that players have largely rubberstamped their credentials for the famous award already. With the era of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo routinely storming to victory now behind us, the race for the golden ball has become far more unpredictable, with several potential candidates in contention.
Given how difficult it is to decide, GIVEMESPORT enlisted the help of Grok AI to get its opinion on who will come out on top when the ceremony takes place later this year.
10 Harry Kane
Bayern Munich
What the AI said: “Kane’s 24 Bundesliga goals and 11 in the Champions League reflect his elite scoring ability, but Bayern’s UCL quarter-final loss to Inter and lack of European silverware hurt his chances. His European Golden Shoe contention is notable, but the Ballon d’Or favors players with team honours.”
It seems that Harry Kane’s wait for a major trophy is going to come to an end, with Bayern Munich just a game away from being confirmed as Bundesliga champions. However, the stature of the division is not enough to propel the Englishman up the rankings, and with there being no international tournament this summer, no exploits for the Three Lions can help Kane’s Ballon d’Or case.
9 Lautaro Martinez
Inter Milan
What the AI said: “Martinez is Inter’s talisman, scoring in both legs against Bayern Munich to secure a UCL semi-final spot. His 21 goals across competitions, despite not being at his peak scoring form, keep him relevant. Inter’s Serie A chase and deep UCL run make him a contender, but his lower goal tally compared to forwards like Kane or Lewandowski may cap his ranking.”
For a striker to win the Ballon d’Or when, at the time of writing, they have just 12 league goals, seems unlikely. Of course, Lautaro Martinez’s all-round game is more than just putting the ball in the back of the net, but he faces an uphill battle in surpassing some of the other names on this list when his statistical data doesn’t stand out to the same degree.
8 Declan Rice
Arsenal
What the AI said: “Rice’s masterful performances, including two sublime free-kick goals against Real Madrid in the UCL, have elevated his status. His seven goals and 10 assists in all competitions and dominance in midfield make him a dark horse. Arsenal’s potential first Champions League title could boost him, but midfielders rarely win consecutively, and his lack of flashy attacking stats may limit his votes.”
Slowly but surely Declan Rice has managed to transform himself into Arsenal’s most important player, surpassing the likes of Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard and William Saliba. He has shown on numerous occasions he can put the Gunners on his back, but it is still unlikely to be enough for him to crack top spot.
7 Kylian Mbappe
Real Madrid
What the AI said: “Mbappe’s 33 goals, including 22 in La Liga and seven in the Champions League, mark a strong debut season at Real Madrid. His hat-trick against Manchester City in the UCL playoffs highlights his clutch ability. However, Real Madrid’s trophyless season and their UCL quarter-final exit against Arsenal severely weaken his case.”
While the AI claims that Kylian Mbappe has had a strong start to life in Madrid, many would actually say it has somewhat flattered to deceive. He has had his moments, but despite 33 goals being a great number for most, it is less than what people have come to expect from the French superstar. He hasn’t always gelled with other high-profile teammates and was even identified as a problem for Carlo Ancelotti at the start of the season.
6 Pedri
Barcelona
What the AI said: “Pedri’s return to form under Flick has been remarkable, with the 22-year-old showcasing all-round quality as a leader in Barcelona’s system. As a midfielder, he faces an uphill battle following Rodri’s 2024 win. A Champions League triumph could push him higher, though he’s likely to be outshone by Barcelona’s attacking stars.”
It felt for a while that Pedri was going to be outshone by Barcelona compatriot Gavi, but this season he has really cemented himself as the future of the Camp Nou engine room. Everyone knows that the chances of winning the award as anything other than an attacking player is slim, but if anyone is going to have a chance this time around, it is Pedri.
5 Robert Lewandowski
Barcelona
What the AI said: “Lewandowski is defying age with 40 goals in 48 games, including 11 in the Champions League. His prolific scoring in La Liga and Europe keeps him in the conversation, and a potential UCL title with Barcelona could elevate him further. His 2020 Ballon d’Or cancellation adds a sentimental push, but his role as a pure No. 9 may be overshadowed by more creative players.”
Many had written off Robert Lewandowski after a somewhat disappointing 2023-24 season. Proving that father time hadn’t caught up with him just yet, the Polish star has hit back with a phenomenal season that leaves him in the running for the European Golden Shoe, but still falls behind two of his teammates in this ranking.
4 Mohamed Salah
Liverpool
What the AI said: “Salah is having a career-best season, with 33 goals and 23 assists across all competitions, making him one of Europe’s most potent attacking threat statistically. Liverpool’s Premier League title under Arne Slot strengthens his case, but their early Champions League exit against PSG significantly dents his chances, as UCL success is often critical. Bookmakers still rank him highly, but some argue the PFA Player of the Year is a more realistic target.”
There was a time when Mohamed Salah seemed to be the obvious candidate for the award, but as the AI rightly says, Liverpool’s poor Champions League performance will no doubt harm the Egyptian’s chances of becoming just the second ever African player to claim the Ballon d’Or.
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3 Lamine Yamal
Barcelona
What the AI said: “At just 17, Yamal is a global superstar in the making. His 15 goals and 24 assists for Barcelona, combined with his fearless performances in the Champions League (e.g., against Inter), make him a strong contender. If Barcelona win major silverware, his narrative as a potential first teenage Ballon d’Or winner could propel him high.”
He already has Gary Lineker’s backing, and now, Lamine Yamal has been tipped for a strong Ballon d’Or finish by the AI. Should he win it, he would surpass Ronaldo Nazario as the youngest recipient of the trophy, and should Los Cules complete a treble, don’t bet against it happening.
2 Ousmane Dembele
Paris Saint-Germain
What the AI said: “Dembele has found consistency under Luis Enrique, with 33 goals in 45 club appearances, including 21 in Ligue 1 and eight in the Champions League. PSG’s strong Ligue 1 lead and their UCL semi-final run bolster his case. His statement performances against elite clubs showcase his big-stage credentials. However, Ligue 1’s perceived lower competitive level might slightly hinder his chances.”
Many earmarked Ousmane Dembele as a future great when he joined Barcelona. It may have taken a few more years for this potential to develop, and at a completely different club, but the ambidextrous French winger has been in top form and could be about to guide his side to their first European Cup triumph.
1 Raphinha
Barcelona
What the AI said: “Raphinha has emerged as a leading candidate, topping many power rankings due to his sensational form for Barcelona. He’s second in the Champions League scoring charts with 12 goals and has nine assists, surpassing Lionel Messi’s best-ever numbers in a single UCL campaign. His pivotal role in Barcelona’s La Liga and Champions League campaigns under Hansi Flick, combined with their strong odds to win the UCL, makes him a frontrunner. His narrative of redemption—from a perceived flop to a go-to star—adds appeal.”
Imagine saying this a year ago. It seemed like Vinicius Junior was the man destined to end Brazil’s near two-decade wait for a Ballon d’Or winner. Now, out of the shadows, it’s Raphinha who has the best chance after nothing short of an all-time great season despite starting it as a potential outgoing at the Camp Nou.